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McKesson Corp. (NYSE:MCK)

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자본 자산 가격 책정 모델 (CAPM) 

Microsoft Excel

자본 자산 가격 책정 모델(CAPM)은 McKesson보통주와 같은 위험 자산에 대한 예상 또는 필요한 수익률을 나타냅니다.


수익률

McKesson Corp., 월별 수익률

Microsoft Excel
McKesson Corp. (MCK) Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500)
t 날짜 MCK,t1 피제수MCK,t1 RMCK,t2 S&P 500,t RS&P 500,t3
2010. 4. 30. $64.81 1,186.69
1. 2010. 5. 31. $70.00 8.01% 1,089.41 -8.20%
2. 2010. 6. 30. $67.16 $0.18 -3.80% 1,030.71 -5.39%
3. 2010. 7. 31. $62.82 -6.46% 1,101.60 6.88%
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
70. 2016. 2. 29. $155.62 $0.28 -3.16% 1,932.23 -0.41%
71. 2016. 3. 31. $157.25 1.05% 2,059.74 6.60%
평균의 (R): 1.50% 0.85%
표준 편차: 6.06% 3.85%
McKesson Corp. (MCK) Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500)
t 날짜 MCK,t1 피제수MCK,t1 RMCK,t2 S&P 500,t RS&P 500,t3
2010. 4. 30. $64.81 1,186.69
1. 2010. 5. 31. $70.00 8.01% 1,089.41 -8.20%
2. 2010. 6. 30. $67.16 $0.18 -3.80% 1,030.71 -5.39%
3. 2010. 7. 31. $62.82 -6.46% 1,101.60 6.88%
4. 2010. 8. 31. $58.05 $0.18 -7.31% 1,049.33 -4.74%
5. 2010. 9. 30. $61.78 6.43% 1,141.20 8.76%
6. 2010. 10. 31. $65.98 6.80% 1,183.26 3.69%
7. 2010. 11. 30. $63.90 $0.18 -2.88% 1,180.55 -0.23%
8. 2010. 12. 31. $70.38 10.14% 1,257.64 6.53%
9. 2011. 1. 31. $75.17 6.81% 1,286.12 2.26%
10. 2011. 2. 28. $79.28 $0.18 5.71% 1,327.22 3.20%
11. 2011. 3. 31. $79.05 -0.29% 1,325.83 -0.10%
12. 2011. 4. 30. $83.01 5.01% 1,363.61 2.85%
13. 2011. 5. 31. $85.61 3.13% 1,345.20 -1.35%
14. 2011. 6. 30. $83.65 $0.20 -2.06% 1,320.64 -1.83%
15. 2011. 7. 31. $81.12 -3.02% 1,292.28 -2.15%
16. 2011. 8. 31. $79.93 $0.20 -1.22% 1,218.89 -5.68%
17. 2011. 9. 30. $72.70 -9.05% 1,131.42 -7.18%
18. 2011. 10. 31. $81.55 12.17% 1,253.30 10.77%
19. 2011. 11. 30. $81.31 $0.20 -0.05% 1,246.96 -0.51%
20. 2011. 12. 31. $77.91 -4.18% 1,257.60 0.85%
21. 2012. 1. 31. $81.72 4.89% 1,312.41 4.36%
22. 2012. 2. 29. $83.51 $0.20 2.44% 1,365.68 4.06%
23. 2012. 3. 31. $87.77 5.10% 1,408.47 3.13%
24. 2012. 4. 30. $91.41 4.15% 1,397.91 -0.75%
25. 2012. 5. 31. $87.28 -4.52% 1,310.33 -6.27%
26. 2012. 6. 30. $93.75 $0.20 7.64% 1,362.16 3.96%
27. 2012. 7. 31. $90.73 -3.22% 1,379.32 1.26%
28. 2012. 8. 31. $87.11 $0.20 -3.77% 1,406.58 1.98%
29. 2012. 9. 30. $86.03 -1.24% 1,440.67 2.42%
30. 2012. 10. 31. $93.31 8.46% 1,412.16 -1.98%
31. 2012. 11. 30. $94.47 $0.20 1.46% 1,416.18 0.28%
32. 2012. 12. 31. $96.96 2.64% 1,426.19 0.71%
33. 2013. 1. 31. $105.23 8.53% 1,498.11 5.04%
34. 2013. 2. 28. $106.13 $0.20 1.05% 1,514.68 1.11%
35. 2013. 3. 31. $107.96 1.72% 1,569.19 3.60%
36. 2013. 4. 30. $105.82 -1.98% 1,597.57 1.81%
37. 2013. 5. 31. $113.86 7.60% 1,630.74 2.08%
38. 2013. 6. 30. $114.50 $0.20 0.74% 1,606.28 -1.50%
39. 2013. 7. 31. $122.66 7.13% 1,685.73 4.95%
40. 2013. 8. 31. $121.41 $0.24 -0.82% 1,632.97 -3.13%
41. 2013. 9. 30. $128.30 5.67% 1,681.55 2.97%
42. 2013. 10. 31. $156.34 21.86% 1,756.54 4.46%
43. 2013. 11. 30. $165.89 $0.24 6.26% 1,805.81 2.80%
44. 2013. 12. 31. $161.40 -2.71% 1,848.36 2.36%
45. 2014. 1. 31. $174.41 8.06% 1,782.59 -3.56%
46. 2014. 2. 28. $177.05 $0.24 1.65% 1,859.45 4.31%
47. 2014. 3. 31. $176.57 -0.27% 1,872.34 0.69%
48. 2014. 4. 30. $169.19 -4.18% 1,883.95 0.62%
49. 2014. 5. 31. $189.64 12.09% 1,923.57 2.10%
50. 2014. 6. 30. $186.21 $0.24 -1.68% 1,960.23 1.91%
51. 2014. 7. 31. $191.86 3.03% 1,930.67 -1.51%
52. 2014. 8. 31. $195.03 $0.24 1.78% 2,003.37 3.77%
53. 2014. 9. 30. $194.67 -0.18% 1,972.29 -1.55%
54. 2014. 10. 31. $203.41 4.49% 2,018.05 2.32%
55. 2014. 11. 30. $210.76 $0.24 3.73% 2,067.56 2.45%
56. 2014. 12. 31. $207.58 -1.51% 2,058.90 -0.42%
57. 2015. 1. 31. $212.65 2.44% 1,994.99 -3.10%
58. 2015. 2. 28. $228.70 $0.24 7.66% 2,104.50 5.49%
59. 2015. 3. 31. $226.20 -1.09% 2,067.89 -1.74%
60. 2015. 4. 30. $223.40 -1.24% 2,085.51 0.85%
61. 2015. 5. 31. $237.23 6.19% 2,107.39 1.05%
62. 2015. 6. 30. $224.81 $0.24 -5.13% 2,063.11 -2.10%
63. 2015. 7. 31. $220.57 -1.89% 2,103.84 1.97%
64. 2015. 8. 31. $197.58 $0.28 -10.30% 1,972.18 -6.26%
65. 2015. 9. 30. $185.03 -6.35% 1,920.03 -2.64%
66. 2015. 10. 31. $178.80 -3.37% 2,079.36 8.30%
67. 2015. 11. 30. $189.35 $0.28 6.06% 2,080.41 0.05%
68. 2015. 12. 31. $197.23 4.16% 2,043.94 -1.75%
69. 2016. 1. 31. $160.98 -18.38% 1,940.24 -5.07%
70. 2016. 2. 29. $155.62 $0.28 -3.16% 1,932.23 -0.41%
71. 2016. 3. 31. $157.25 1.05% 2,059.74 6.60%
평균의 (R): 1.50% 0.85%
표준 편차: 6.06% 3.85%

모두 보기

1 보통주 주당 미화 달러(USD)로 표시되며, 분할 및 주식 배당금에 대해 조정되었습니다.

2 기간 t 동안 MCK의 보통주 수익률.

3 기간 t 동안 S&P 500(시장 포트폴리오 프록시)의 수익률.


분산과 공분산

McKesson Corp., 수익률의 분산 및 공분산 계산

Microsoft Excel
t 날짜 RMCK,t RS&P 500,t (RMCK,tRMCK)2 (RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)2 (RMCK,tRMCK)×(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)
1. 2010. 5. 31. 8.01% -8.20% 42.33 81.90 -58.88
2. 2010. 6. 30. -3.80% -5.39% 28.11 38.94 33.08
3. 2010. 7. 31. -6.46% 6.88% 63.42 36.31 -47.99
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
70. 2016. 2. 29. -3.16% -0.41% 21.69 1.60 5.89
71. 2016. 3. 31. 1.05% 6.60% 0.21 33.03 -2.61
합계 (Σ): 2,573.16 1,034.99 771.36
t 날짜 RMCK,t RS&P 500,t (RMCK,tRMCK)2 (RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)2 (RMCK,tRMCK)×(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)
1. 2010. 5. 31. 8.01% -8.20% 42.33 81.90 -58.88
2. 2010. 6. 30. -3.80% -5.39% 28.11 38.94 33.08
3. 2010. 7. 31. -6.46% 6.88% 63.42 36.31 -47.99
4. 2010. 8. 31. -7.31% -4.74% 77.58 31.33 49.30
5. 2010. 9. 30. 6.43% 8.76% 24.24 62.46 38.91
6. 2010. 10. 31. 6.80% 3.69% 28.06 8.03 15.01
7. 2010. 11. 30. -2.88% -0.23% 19.20 1.17 4.74
8. 2010. 12. 31. 10.14% 6.53% 74.64 32.24 49.05
9. 2011. 1. 31. 6.81% 2.26% 28.14 1.99 7.49
10. 2011. 2. 28. 5.71% 3.20% 17.69 5.49 9.86
11. 2011. 3. 31. -0.29% -0.10% 3.21 0.92 1.71
12. 2011. 4. 30. 5.01% 2.85% 12.31 3.99 7.01
13. 2011. 5. 31. 3.13% -1.35% 2.66 4.85 -3.59
14. 2011. 6. 30. -2.06% -1.83% 12.66 7.17 9.53
15. 2011. 7. 31. -3.02% -2.15% 20.49 9.00 13.58
16. 2011. 8. 31. -1.22% -5.68% 7.41 42.66 17.78
17. 2011. 9. 30. -9.05% -7.18% 111.24 64.46 84.68
18. 2011. 10. 31. 12.17% 10.77% 113.89 98.41 105.86
19. 2011. 11. 30. -0.05% -0.51% 2.40 1.84 2.11
20. 2011. 12. 31. -4.18% 0.85% 32.30 0.00 -0.01
21. 2012. 1. 31. 4.89% 4.36% 11.48 12.29 11.88
22. 2012. 2. 29. 2.44% 4.06% 0.87 10.28 2.99
23. 2012. 3. 31. 5.10% 3.13% 12.96 5.20 8.21
24. 2012. 4. 30. 4.15% -0.75% 7.00 2.57 -4.24
25. 2012. 5. 31. -4.52% -6.27% 36.24 50.66 42.84
26. 2012. 6. 30. 7.64% 3.96% 37.71 9.63 19.06
27. 2012. 7. 31. -3.22% 1.26% 22.31 0.17 -1.92
28. 2012. 8. 31. -3.77% 1.98% 27.78 1.26 -5.93
29. 2012. 9. 30. -1.24% 2.42% 7.52 2.47 -4.31
30. 2012. 10. 31. 8.46% -1.98% 48.45 8.02 -19.71
31. 2012. 11. 30. 1.46% 0.28% 0.00 0.32 0.03
32. 2012. 12. 31. 2.64% 0.71% 1.29 0.02 -0.16
33. 2013. 1. 31. 8.53% 5.04% 49.39 17.56 29.45
34. 2013. 2. 28. 1.05% 1.11% 0.21 0.06 -0.12
35. 2013. 3. 31. 1.72% 3.60% 0.05 7.54 0.61
36. 2013. 4. 30. -1.98% 1.81% 12.14 0.91 -3.33
37. 2013. 5. 31. 7.60% 2.08% 37.16 1.50 7.46
38. 2013. 6. 30. 0.74% -1.50% 0.58 5.53 1.80
39. 2013. 7. 31. 7.13% 4.95% 31.64 16.76 23.03
40. 2013. 8. 31. -0.82% -3.13% 5.41 15.86 9.26
41. 2013. 9. 30. 5.67% 2.97% 17.42 4.51 8.86
42. 2013. 10. 31. 21.86% 4.46% 414.26 13.01 73.42
43. 2013. 11. 30. 6.26% 2.80% 22.66 3.81 9.30
44. 2013. 12. 31. -2.71% 2.36% 17.71 2.26 -6.33
45. 2014. 1. 31. 8.06% -3.56% 43.02 19.45 -28.93
46. 2014. 2. 28. 1.65% 4.31% 0.02 11.97 0.52
47. 2014. 3. 31. -0.27% 0.69% 3.14 0.03 0.28
48. 2014. 4. 30. -4.18% 0.62% 32.28 0.05 1.32
49. 2014. 5. 31. 12.09% 2.10% 112.05 1.56 13.24
50. 2014. 6. 30. -1.68% 1.91% 10.14 1.11 -3.35
51. 2014. 7. 31. 3.03% -1.51% 2.35 5.57 -3.62
52. 2014. 8. 31. 1.78% 3.77% 0.08 8.49 0.80
53. 2014. 9. 30. -0.18% -1.55% 2.84 5.78 4.05
54. 2014. 10. 31. 4.49% 2.32% 8.93 2.15 4.39
55. 2014. 11. 30. 3.73% 2.45% 4.97 2.56 3.57
56. 2014. 12. 31. -1.51% -0.42% 9.06 1.62 3.83
57. 2015. 1. 31. 2.44% -3.10% 0.89 15.65 -3.72
58. 2015. 2. 28. 7.66% 5.49% 37.93 21.50 28.56
59. 2015. 3. 31. -1.09% -1.74% 6.73 6.72 6.72
60. 2015. 4. 30. -1.24% 0.85% 7.50 0.00 0.00
61. 2015. 5. 31. 6.19% 1.05% 21.99 0.04 0.92
62. 2015. 6. 30. -5.13% -2.10% 44.03 8.72 19.60
63. 2015. 7. 31. -1.89% 1.97% 11.48 1.26 -3.80
64. 2015. 8. 31. -10.30% -6.26% 139.18 50.56 83.88
65. 2015. 9. 30. -6.35% -2.64% 61.68 12.23 27.46
66. 2015. 10. 31. -3.37% 8.30% 23.70 55.44 -36.25
67. 2015. 11. 30. 6.06% 0.05% 20.75 0.64 -3.65
68. 2015. 12. 31. 4.16% -1.75% 7.08 6.79 -6.93
69. 2016. 1. 31. -18.38% -5.07% 395.26 35.11 117.81
70. 2016. 2. 29. -3.16% -0.41% 21.69 1.60 5.89
71. 2016. 3. 31. 1.05% 6.60% 0.21 33.03 -2.61
합계 (Σ): 2,573.16 1,034.99 771.36

모두 보기

분산MCK = Σ(RMCK,tRMCK)2 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 2,573.16 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 36.76

분산S&P 500 = Σ(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500)2 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 1,034.99 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 14.79

공분산MCK, S&P 500 = Σ(RMCK,tRMCK)×(RS&P 500,tRS&P 500) ÷ (71 – 1)
= 771.36 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 11.02


체계적인 위험 추정 (β)

Microsoft Excel
분산MCK 36.76
분산S&P 500 14.79
공분산MCK, S&P 500 11.02
상관 계수MCK, S&P 5001 0.47
βMCK2 0.75
αMCK3 0.87%

계산

1 상관 계수MCK, S&P 500
= 공분산MCK, S&P 500 ÷ (표준 편차MCK × 표준 편차S&P 500)
= 11.02 ÷ (6.06% × 3.85%)
= 0.47

2 βMCK
= 공분산MCK, S&P 500 ÷ 분산S&P 500
= 11.02 ÷ 14.79
= 0.75

3 αMCK
= 평균의MCK – βMCK × 평균의S&P 500
= 1.50%0.75 × 0.85%
= 0.87%


기대 수익률

Microsoft Excel
가정
LT Treasury Composite의 수익률1 RF 4.82%
시장 포트폴리오에 대한 예상 수익률2 E(RM) 14.88%
보통주의 체계적 위험McKesson βMCK 0.75
 
McKesson 보통주의 예상 수익률3 E(RMCK) 12.32%

1 10년 이내에 만기가 도래하거나 콜링할 수 없는 모든 미결제 고정 쿠폰 미국 국채에 대한 입찰 수익률의 비가중 평균(무위험 수익률 대리).

2 자세히 보기 »

3 E(RMCK) = RF + βMCK [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.82% + 0.75 [14.88%4.82%]
= 12.32%